🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.