Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
