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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still